You’ve likely seen the reports, the gin boom is officially over.
Nick Gillett has written a piece for Harpers on what happened to gin after the boom. Premium-plus volumes fell 16% during 2023, with a forecast CAGR of -5% between 2023 and 2028. Against that, every gin brand in Mangrove’s portfolio has kept growing, which he reads as a story about quality holding up where the trend didn’t.
Most of the bust, as he sees it, landed on gin liqueurs built on synthetic flavours and fast-moving trends. What survived is more sophisticated, with any added flavour kept subtle. Nordes is an example he gives as a gin people experiment with across different serves.
He gives the independents credit for the innovation, whether that’s FAIR on sustainability or Glendalough on flavour. His argument is that challenger brands are what push the bigger names to follow.
On momentum he points to RTDs. East London Liquor Company’s canned Grapefruit G&T sells out regularly, which tells you the format has room in it. The rest is education, since the gin and tonic is simple enough that the brand has to show people how to make it properly.
